As the Central African Republic becomes increasingly fractured along communal and regional lines, the re-emergence of the rebel Front populaire pour le redressement (FPR) in the north further worsened insecurity. Muslims continue to be targeted daily. African Union peacekeepers fell victim to two attacks by anti-balaka militias, with at least one killed. Chadian peacekeepers were accused of firing on civilians in a predominantly Christian neighbourhood of Bangui, reportedly killing at least 24. The promised support from the international community has not yet materialised, though in late March the European Union announced the imminent deployment of troops (see our recent blog post).
The crisis in Ukraine escalated dramatically with Russia’s annexation of the Crimean peninsula, a move Western states condemned as illegal. Following a controversial referendum organised by pro-Russian authorities in Crimea, Russia quickly formalised the takeover, occupying Ukrainian military bases, ports and other installations. Russian troop build-ups along the border with Ukraine prompted concerns over Moscow’s intentions in eastern Ukraine, where demonstrators denounced the new Kiev government and voiced their support for Russia. Other regional states, from the Baltics to Moldova, expressed apprehension that Russia would try to exert similar pressure on them.
Libya’s ongoing crisis over its eastern oil terminals deepened when militias supportive of the General National Congress (GNC) clashed with gunmen loyal to the eastern pro-autonomy leader Ibrahim Jedran. The fighting risks aggravating a wider confrontation between Islamists and non-Islamists and their militias. In early March Jedran’s forces defied the GNC by loading crude oil on a tanker in Sidra prompting it to again threaten military action to liberate the terminals. On 11 March the GNC ousted Prime Minister Ali Zeidan from office after several months of deadlock; defence minister Abdallah al-Thinni was sworn in as his interim replacement.
Heightening tensions between Huthis and various opponents in Yemen’s North increasingly risk rekindling a wider conflict (see our recent alert). Violence is already on the rise across the North, with dozens killed in clashes in March. Ceasefire negotiations in Hamdan, 20km outside the capital, continue after fighting spread to the area in early March, and ended only when the military deployed. Al-Qaeda appears to be growing in strength in the South, with twenty soldiers killed in Hadramout on 24 March.
Myanmar proceeded with a controversial UN- and donor-backed census from 30 March, despite warnings that the count could trigger another flare-up of intercommunal violence in western Rakhine state. Rakhine nationalists, upset that the census would give people the option of identifying themselves as ethnic Rohingya, threatened to boycott it and staged protests and attacks on the offices and homes of international humanitarian workers. The boycott was called off after the government bowed to Rakhine pressure at the end of the month and announced that people would not be able to identify themselves as Rohingya – a move that prompted anger among the minority Rohingya population and international condemnation (see our recent report, commentary and blog posts on anti-Muslim violence in Myanmar).
On 27 March the Philippines government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), the country’s largest and best-armed insurgent group, signed an historic peace deal. The Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro (CAB) ends the 40-year conflict in the Mindanao region. Under the deal, the MILF is to become a political group, and a new autonomous Bangsamoro entity is to be put in place by 2016. Both parties stressed the remaining obstacles to implementing the peace agreement, including MILF disarmament and the danger posed by potential spoilers (see our report on dismantling rebel groups).